Matcha is out of stock!

It was all fun and froth until your favourite matcha latte vanished from the café menu.

Whether it’s in your oat milk latte, your morning skincare routine, or the Instagram reel that showed you how to whisk it with precision, matcha has officially left the niche aisle. In 2024–25, it became a global phenomenon, with Gen Z and millennials sipping it up in Seoul, Stockholm, Surat, and Santa Monica. But in the middle of this bright green boom, a quiet crisis has been brewing.

Japan, the birthplace and primary supplier of ceremonial-grade matcha, is running dry.

What’s causing the matcha shortage?

Let’s start with the leaf. Matcha is made from tencha, a green tea leaf that’s shaded before harvest to concentrate nutrients and develop its signature umami flavour. These leaves are then stone-ground in small batches, often on family-owned farms in regions like Uji and Sayama. This slow, artisanal process is central to what makes matcha, well, matcha.

But the system wasn’t built for TikTok virality.

Over the last three years, global demand has soared; powered by health trends, Japan’s tourism rebound, and an explosion of influencer-driven hype. At cafes in Los Angeles and London, a month’s supply of matcha is disappearing in days. In Kyoto, shelves are being emptied by tourists within hours of opening. And in Tokyo’s Tsukiji district, tea shops are refusing to sell in bulk to prevent hoarding.

This demand shock comes at a fragile time for Japan’s tea farmers.

Climate change has made harvests more erratic, with extreme heat in 2024–25 damaging yields. Meanwhile, the number of active tea plantations in Japan has shrunk to a quarter of what it was 20 years ago, as younger generations turn away from farming. Add to that US tariffs on Japanese goods with matcha facing up to 24% import duty and you have a perfect storm.

A ₹40,000 crore market running on fumes

The global matcha market is now worth billions. According to industry estimates, it’s projected to touch $5 billion (₹41,000 crore) by 2028, growing at over 10% CAGR.

Much of that growth is driven by Gen Z and millennials, who are trading their morning espresso for antioxidant-rich, slow-caffeine alternatives. Unlike regular green tea, matcha delivers a creamy texture, subtle sweetness, and an Instagrammable aesthetic that fits perfectly into the “clean girl” and “wellness bro” lifestyle buckets.

But while global consumption is going mainstream, production hasn’t scaled in sync.

Japan still supplies the majority of high-quality matcha, especially the ceremonial-grade kind used in traditional tea rituals and premium drinks. Production nearly tripled between 2010 and 2023, yet it’s still limited by time, weather, and method. Stone mills can grind just 40 grams of matcha an hour. Tencha can only be grown during certain months. And farming skills often take a decade to master.

When demand overshoots supply in such a tightly controlled craft; shortages are inevitable.

Is the rest of the world catching up?

Kind of. Farms in China, South Korea, Taiwan, and even the US are now experimenting with matcha cultivation. But matching Japan’s flavour profile, leaf shading techniques, and grinding tradition is harder than it looks. Ceremonial-grade matcha isn’t just about how green it looks; it’s about depth of flavour, fineness of grind, and purity of process.

Still, international producers are hopeful. With the help of technology from AI-based weather forecasting to precision agriculture and ERP-led supply chain optimisation, a new class of matcha farms is emerging. These farms aim to scale faster, reduce costs, and build a more resilient global matcha economy.

But for now, the quality gap remains wide. As one Kyoto tea grower put it: “You can’t fast-forward flavour.”

Not just a drink; a cultural contradiction

Interestingly, the shortage has led to some soul-searching within Japan’s tea community.

Traditionalists are urging consumers to be more mindful; to savour matcha as a sacred drink, not just a trendy ingredient. High-grade matcha, they argue, should never be used in cookies or pancakes, where its subtle flavours get drowned out. Some cafés and retailers have imposed strict buying limits. Others have raised prices by up to 30% in 2024 alone.

It’s not just about economics. It’s about preserving a centuries-old ritual.

As Atsuko Mori of Kyoto’s Camellia Tea Ceremony puts it: “There’s a contradiction when something so special to us becomes a global stockpiling trend.”

What’s next for matcha?

Japan’s government is nudging tea producers to scale up. But that’s easier said than done, especially when your workforce is aging, land is limited, and your product depends on nuance rather than yield.

Meanwhile, tariffs could get worse before they get better. With the US-Japan trade deal introducing a 15–24% tax on imports, matcha prices may stay elevated for some time, especially in Western markets.

But not everything is grim. Sustainability conversations are gaining ground, tech-led tea farming is slowly becoming viable, and younger consumers are getting more educated about grade, origin, and sourcing.

In the long run, this crunch could lead to a healthier matcha ecosystem, one that balances tradition with scale, and hype with respect.

And what about India?

In India, matcha is no longer just a wellness trend, it’s a fast-growing premium category. Over the past 18 months, urban cafes from Mumbai’s Subko to Delhi’s Blue Tokai outlets have reported a sharp rise in matcha orders, with iced matcha lattes emerging as a top-three non-coffee pick among millennials. Tata Starbucks confirmed in its FY24 release that matcha-based beverages were among its fastest-growing menu items in Tier 1 cities.

On the retail front, D2C brands like Kimino Japanese Organic Matcha and Tea Trunk have seen up to 2x YoY growth in online matcha sales, with 70% of demand coming from customers aged 20–35. Amazon India lists over 500 matcha products from culinary-grade powders to face masks with Japanese-imported variants often priced above ₹800 for just 30 grams.

But the global shortage is being felt here too. Import delays and tariff-linked pricing have pushed up retail matcha prices by 20–30% since mid-2024, and several specialty brands are warning of stock-outs. Some Indian startups are exploring sourcing options from Taiwan and South Korea to reduce dependency on Japan but matching ceremonial-grade quality remains a challenge.

Final pour

What we’re seeing isn’t just a product shortage. It’s a cultural tipping point. The global love for matcha has outgrown its small-batch roots and now, the world has to decide how to grow that love responsibly. Whether you sip it for health, heritage, or the ‘gram, one thing’s clear: that humble green powder is no longer just a trend. It’s a test case for how tradition meets modern demand and who gets to shape that story.

FAQs

Why is there a global matcha shortage in 2025?

There’s a perfect storm behind the matcha shortage: skyrocketing global demand, climate change hitting Japanese tea farms, an aging farming population, and US import tariffs of up to 24%. Japan, the top source for ceremonial-grade matcha, is struggling to keep up.

How is climate change affecting matcha production in Japan?

Extreme heat waves in 2024 and 2025 damaged tencha harvests in key matcha-growing regions like Uji and Sayama. With fewer healthy leaves and unpredictable weather, farmers are seeing lower yields, making premium matcha even harder to source.

What makes Japanese matcha different from other matcha?

Japanese matcha, especially the ceremonial-grade kind, is made using shaded tencha leaves, stone-ground in small batches. This slow process creates a smooth, umami-rich flavour that’s hard to replicate. China, South Korea, and the US are trying, but Japan still leads on quality.

Why has matcha become so popular with Gen Z and millennials?

Matcha’s rise is tied to wellness trends, clean aesthetics, and its slow-caffeine energy boost. It fits seamlessly into “clean girl” and “wellness bro” lifestyles. Plus, iced matcha lattes look great on the ‘gram and double up as a skincare buzzword.

How big is the global matcha market?

As of 2025, the global matcha market is worth over ₹40,000 crore ($5 billion) and is growing at more than 10% CAGR. Most of this demand is being driven by young consumers in the US, Europe, and increasingly, India.

Is matcha getting more expensive in India?

Yes. Matcha prices in India have gone up by 20–30% since mid-2024 due to import delays and rising global demand. Premium brands selling Japanese-origin matcha are also seeing frequent stock-outs and higher retail costs.

Can Indian consumers still buy ceremonial-grade matcha?

Ceremonial-grade matcha is available through premium D2C brands and online platforms like Amazon India, but availability is patchy. Prices are steep—often ₹800+ for just 30 grams—and stock is limited due to the global crunch.

Are other countries producing high-quality matcha?

Countries like China, Taiwan, South Korea, and the US are experimenting with matcha production. While they’re making progress, the flavour profile, grinding finesse, and traditional methods used in Japan still set the benchmark for ceremonial-grade quality.

How are Japanese tea farmers reacting to the matcha boom?

Many are struggling to keep up. Some are raising prices, limiting bulk sales, or urging consumers to treat matcha as a sacred drink, not a trendy ingredient. Traditionalists want to protect the heritage, not feed mass-market demand.

What does the future of matcha look like?

The matcha industry is entering a turning point. If sustainability, tech-based farming, and respect for tradition go hand in hand, the supply chain could evolve. But until then, quality matcha will remain rare, pricey, and precious.