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Novo made billions from Ozempic. Can it survive the GLP-1 war?

Coffee Crew  | Aug 12, 2025

Novo made billions from Ozempic. Can it survive the GLP-1 war?

For a while, it felt like everyone, from billionaires to Bollywood producers, had discovered the same magic shot. A tiny weekly injection that could help you lose weight without crash diets or punishing gym sessions. In Hollywood, it was casually name-dropped at red-carpet interviews. On TikTok, #Ozempic was racking up over a billion views. And for Novo Nordisk, the Danish company behind it, this was more than a blockbuster drug; it was a ticket to becoming Europe’s most valuable company.

Ozempic wasn’t even meant to be a weight-loss drug at first. When it launched in 2017, it was approved for Type 2 diabetes. The active ingredient, semaglutide, works by mimicking a hormone called GLP-1 that helps regulate blood sugar, slows down digestion, and reduces appetite. For diabetics, it meant better control of their condition. But doctors and patients quickly noticed something else: people on Ozempic were losing 10–15% of their body weight in a year. 

That’s a huge number in medical terms, especially without surgery. Later studies even suggested it could reduce the risk of heart attacks and possibly slow biological ageing by up to five years.

By 2021, Novo Nordisk leaned into this “side effect” and launched Wegovy; a higher-dose semaglutide shot specifically for weight loss. Demand exploded. In the first half of 2025 alone, Ozempic brought in $22 billion in sales, with 70% of that from the US. Novo’s share price soared, and at its peak in 2023, the company was worth more than luxury giant LVMH.

The cultural moment was just as wild. Elon Musk credited his physique to “fasting + Wegovy/Ozempic”. Oprah Winfrey called it a relief for people struggling with weight all their lives. In India, gossip columns whispered about a famous filmmaker’s dramatic transformation being “helped” by a foreign injection. TikTok became a free advertising machine with transformation videos, meal diaries, and side-by-side before-and-after shots that made the drug a viral phenomenon.

But behind the glam, trouble was brewing. Wegovy’s popularity was so high that Novo Nordisk couldn’t keep up with production. In 2022, semaglutide landed on the FDA’s shortage list, which triggered an American legal loophole: compounding pharmacies could make their own cheaper versions of the drug. These “copycats” weren’t exact generics, but they were legal as long as the shortage lasted. By mid-2025, over a million Americans were still on these compounded GLP-1 drugs,  a massive slice of the market that Novo no longer controlled.

Competition made things worse. Eli Lilly, an American rival, launched Mounjaro in 2022 for diabetes and later rebranded it as Zepbound for weight loss. Mounjaro didn’t just match Ozempic’s results, it often beat them. In trials, patients lost around 21% of their body weight on Mounjaro versus about 15% on Ozempic. 

Lilly also moved faster online, launching its direct-to-consumer platform, LillyDirect, a full 14 months before NovoCare. And Lilly’s daily pill version, orforglipron, showed promising results with fewer usage restrictions. Novo’s own oral tablet simply didn’t match the weight-loss punch of its injections.

The cracks began to show in the stock market. In May 2025, Novo Nordisk shocked analysts by announcing a CEO change and warning that growth would slow in the second half of the year. The share price went into freefall by down over 50% for the year, knocking Novo out of Europe’s top 10 most valuable companies. For investors, the weight-loss gold rush suddenly looked a lot less shiny.

The public mood also shifted. Doctors warned about side effects like nausea, vomiting, and what became known online as “Ozempic face”, a gaunt look from rapid weight loss. More serious cases of gastroparesis, or “stomach paralysis”, started surfacing in lawsuits. Some influencers were accused of hiding their use of the drug while selling diet programs. And on social media, a counter-narrative began: that Ozempic was being over-prescribed, misused by people chasing vanity weight loss, and putting diabetics at risk by limiting supply.

While all this unfolded globally, India was gearing up for its own GLP-1 moment. Until recently, Ozempic wasn’t sold here, though Novo’s oral semaglutide pill Rybelsus was available for diabetes. In March 2025, Eli Lilly brought Mounjaro to India, pricing it at around ₹14,000–₹17,500 a month. Uptake was strong with ₹24 crore in sales in the first quarter alone. Seeing this, Novo fast-tracked Wegovy’s Indian launch in June 2025, nearly a year ahead of schedule. It sold ₹2.5 crore worth in just a few weeks.

And the market is only warming up. India has one of the largest diabetic populations in the world and a rapidly growing obesity problem in cities. Pharma giants are eyeing a big payday once semaglutide’s patents expire in 2026. Domestic firms like Sun Pharma, Lupin, Dr. Reddy’s, and Biocon are already preparing to launch cheaper versions, aiming to be among the first globally.

 The Bengaluru-based company is seeking Canadian approval for its generic Ozempic by September 2025, and if all goes well, it could start selling in Canada as early as 2026 before expanding into emerging markets including India. Some industry estimates suggest Indian manufacturers could eventually make a year’s supply for under ₹10,000, compared to over ₹13 lakh for branded versions in the US.

Still, Indian doctors are urging caution. These drugs aren’t for everyone and work best as part of a long-term plan, not a quick fix. Side effects can be rough, and stopping the injections often leads to weight regain. As Dr. Ambrish Mithal, endocrinologist (A physician who specializes in diagnosing and treating disorders affecting the organs and glands that produce hormones) put it, the body returns to its baseline state without the drug’s intervention which is a polite way of saying the weight can come back.

So where does this leave Ozempic?

It’s still a medical breakthrough, no doubt. It proved that a non-surgical drug could cause dramatic weight loss and improve overall health. But it also showed how fast a company’s fortunes can change when supply issues, competition, and public perception turn against it. In just a couple of years, Novo Nordisk went from having the field to itself to fighting for market share on multiple fronts.

Maybe that’s the bigger lesson here in pharma, your current hit can fade fast if your next move isn’t ready. Ozempic’s rise was meteoric, but its challenges came just as quickly. And in India, where the race is only starting, both the hype and the cautionary tales are arriving at the same time. The story isn’t over yet but it’s already one of the most fascinating business rollercoasters in modern medicine.

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FAQs

What is Ozempic and how does it work?

Ozempic is a prescription drug developed by Novo Nordisk, originally approved in 2017 for Type 2 diabetes. Its active ingredient, semaglutide, mimics the GLP-1 hormone to regulate blood sugar, slow digestion, and reduce appetite, which also leads to significant weight loss in many patients.

Was Ozempic originally meant for weight loss?

No, Ozempic was created for managing Type 2 diabetes. However, patients and doctors noticed it also caused weight loss of 10–15% over a year, which later led to the launch of Wegovy, a higher-dose version for obesity treatment.

How much weight can you lose with Ozempic or Wegovy?

Clinical studies show that Ozempic users can lose about 15% of their body weight, while Wegovy, at a higher dose, achieves similar or slightly higher results. Rival drug Mounjaro has shown up to 21% weight loss in trials.

Why did Ozempic become so popular?

Its rapid weight-loss results, celebrity endorsements, and viral social media content drove global attention. Platforms like TikTok and celebrity mentions from Elon Musk and Oprah Winfrey boosted its cultural impact.

What caused Ozempic supply shortages?

Soaring demand, especially after Wegovy’s launch, outpaced Novo Nordisk’s production capacity. In the US, the shortage triggered a legal loophole allowing compounding pharmacies to make cheaper versions, taking a large share of the market.

How has Eli Lilly’s Mounjaro impacted Ozempic’s market share?

Mounjaro has often outperformed Ozempic in trials, offers a strong weight-loss pill option, and launched a direct-to-consumer platform faster. This aggressive competition has eroded Novo Nordisk’s dominance in the weight-loss drug market.

What are the common side effects of Ozempic?

Side effects include nausea, vomiting, and a “gaunt” facial appearance called “Ozempic face.” More serious risks like gastroparesis (stomach paralysis) have been reported in lawsuits. Stopping the drug often leads to weight regain.

Is Ozempic available in India?

Ozempic’s weight-loss version, Wegovy, launched in India in June 2025, following Eli Lilly’s Mounjaro entry in March 2025. Novo Nordisk also sells Rybelsus, an oral semaglutide pill, for diabetes in India.

How much does Ozempic or Wegovy cost in India?

Wegovy is priced at around ₹14,000–₹17,500 per month in India. However, once patents expire in 2026, Indian pharma companies may produce generics costing under ₹10,000 per year.

What’s the future of weight-loss drugs in India?

India’s huge diabetic population and rising urban obesity make it a major growth market. With patents set to expire in 2026, domestic pharma giants like Sun Pharma, Lupin, Dr. Reddy’s, and Biocon are preparing to launch affordable versions.

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