Newsletter
RBI shakes things up, mangoes reign, and petrol slides.
🗓️ Morning, folks and Happy Wednesday! ☀️
💡 Spotlight: IMF lifts India’s GDP growth ⬆️
India has received a small but positive boost from the IMF.
The global body has raised India’s GDP growth forecast to 6.5% for the current financial year, slightly higher than its earlier estimate. This upgrade comes on the back of strong performance last year and some relief from lower US tariffs on Indian goods.
The IMF expects inflation to come in at 4.7% in FY27 and ease further to 4% in FY28.
But the global picture isn’t as bright. The IMF has cut its world growth forecast to 3.1% for 2026, pointing to slowing momentum.
A big reason? Rising tensions in the Middle East. The IMF warns that higher commodity prices, especially oil, could push inflation up and tighten financial conditions globally.
Let’s hit it! 💪🏻
1 Big thing: March retail inflation touches 3.4% 🛒
The impact of the Middle East conflict is starting to show up in India’s inflation numbers.
Retail inflation, measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), came in at 3.4% in March 2026.
Breaking it down: the number is slightly higher than February’s 3.2%, so prices are still fairly under control, but there are early signs of pressure building.
Food inflation rose to 3.87% from 3.47% in February, which means everyday essentials are getting a bit more expensive.
Rural inflation moved up to 3.63% from 3.37%, while urban inflation also edged higher to 3.11% from 3.02%.
Even services are seeing a small uptick. Prices in restaurants and hotels rose slightly, and costs for communication services also increased, though marginally.
The good news is that overall inflation is still within the RBI’s comfort zone. But there’s a catch.
With global crude oil prices rising, largely due to geopolitical tensions, inflation could pick up in the coming months. That’s why the RBI is likely to stay cautious and hold off on cutting interest rates for now.
2. Indian Air Force to get a local engine hub ✈️
India isn’t slowing down when it comes to becoming more self-reliant in defence.
What’s going on: US-based GE Aerospace has signed a deal with the Indian Air Force (IAF) to set up a local facility for the maintenance, repair, and overhaul of F404-IN20 engines, which power India’s Tejas fighter jets.
So far, these engines often had to be sent overseas for major servicing. That not only took time but also affected how many aircraft were available at any given point.
Under the agreement, the IAF will own and operate the depot, while GE Aerospace will provide the technology, training, spare parts, and support staff needed to run it smoothly.
The plan involves manufacturing 99 engines in India for the Tejas Mk2 aircraft.
The Indian Air Force is expected to need around 120-130 of these jets, which could mean a larger engine order if approved.
3. What’s behind Tata Chemicals’ 12% jump? ⬆️
Tata Chemicals shares jumped up to 12% in Monday’s trading session, its biggest single-day rise in over a year and its fourth straight day of gains.
What’s happening: the trigger is a proposed rule change by the Reserve Bank of India to simplify NBFC classification.
Instead of a complex scoring system, the draft sets a clear rule: any NBFC with ₹1 lakh crore+ in assets will be tagged as upper-layer.
Tata Sons is already in this category, which requires it to list by September 30, 2025, and it remains the only one among the 15 such NBFCs yet to comply.
The company repaid ₹22,000 crore in debt by March 2024 to avoid this tag, but with an asset base of ₹1.75 lakh crore, it is likely to remain in the category, making a listing harder to avoid.
Why the stock went up: this directly affects Tata Chemicals, which owns shares worth ₹57 crore in Tata Sons, as per its FY25 annual report.
4. The mango map of India 🥭
India produces over 230 lakh tonnes of mangoes each year, accounting for about 40-45% of global supply, with nearly half coming from Uttar Pradesh and Andhra Pradesh.
Despite this, exports are very low. For instance, the UAE imports only around 12,000 tonnes, worth $20 million, which is a tiny share of total production.
This is mainly because exporting mangoes requires strict quality checks, special treatments, and strong logistics.
India is now working on better infrastructure and promoting premium varieties globally, but while it is a leader in production, it still has a long way to go in exports.
5. Stocks that kept us interested 🚀
What went up ⬆️
🤝 Coforge shares rose after it got approvals to acquire US-based Encora, creating a $2.5 billion tech business focused on AI, cloud, and data services.⚡️
⚡️ Power stocks like Adani Power, Siemens Energy India, and Reliance Power rose despite weak markets, driven by rising summer demand, higher electricity usage, and increased use of electric appliances.
What went down ⬇️
🔻 Jyoti CNC shares fell nearly 15% after French authorities began an investigation into its subsidiary over alleged export rule violations and seized assets.
📉 Swiggy shares declined nearly 4% after co-founder Lakshmi Nandan Reddy Obul stepped down from the board to pursue other opportunities.
⚠️ Shares of oil companies including BPCL, HPCL and IOC fell 1-3% as oil prices crossed $100 per barrel, raising costs and hurting these companies.
Stocks to watch 🧐
🚂 RailTel shares will be in focus after the company received a ₹255 crore order from RVNL to set up communication systems inside tunnels.
💰 Hindustan Zinc won a government auction for a potash and salt block in Rajasthan, boosting its presence in critical minerals.
What else are we snackin’ 🍿
⚓ Naval mission: France and the UK will lead a multinational effort to secure navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, President Macron said.
⚡ EV shift: Delhi’s new EV policy proposes banning petrol two-wheelers by 2028 while offering tax cuts and mandates to accelerate electric adoption.
👀 Peace talks: US and Iran may restart talks after failed Islamabad negotiations, as Trump signals willingness to negotiate before the April 21 deadline.
That’s a wrap! Don’t let the weekday blues get to you.
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