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India-US trade deal ‘very close’ 👀

Coffee Crew  | Oct 21, 2026

India-US trade deal ‘very close’ 👀

Sugar stocks sour, Apple India FY26 revenue jumps 31%, & the art of giving.

🗓️ Morning, folks!

Monday wasn’t kind to the markets. Dalal Street failed to sustain an early recovery and ended the session with significant losses.

The Sensex and Nifty declined more than 1% as private sector banks fell sharply after missing profit expectations for the July-September quarter.

💡 Spotlight: Sugar stocks turn bitter 🍬

Sugar stocks fell up to 6% on Monday after the government stopped sugar mills from using sugarcane juice, sugar syrup and B-heavy molasses to produce ethanol during the 2026-27 supply year.

Why the fall: ethanol is an important and often more profitable business for sugar companies. Mills could earlier choose between producing sugar or ethanol depending on which offered better returns.

The new rule removes that flexibility and could reduce earnings from ethanol plants.

The bigger picture: India’s sugar production is expected to remain under pressure following weak rainfall in Maharashtra and Karnataka.

With sugar prices already elevated during the festive season, the government is prioritising food supply over fuel production.

Let’s hit it! 💪🏻


1 Big Thing: India-US trade deal ‘very close’ 👀

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio arrived in India for talks with External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar, with trade, energy and defence cooperation high on the agenda.

A trade deal, finally?: the long-running India-US trade negotiations were back in focus. Rubio said an agreement was “very, very close”, with only a few issues left to resolve.

He expressed optimism that the two countries would reach a deal soon, calling India an important commercial and strategic partner.

Why Venezuelan oil came up: Rubio called India a ‘refining superpower’, saying its refineries could process more Venezuelan crude as supplies increase.

Venezuela produces heavy crude, which requires specialised refining facilities. Rubio said Indian refineries had processed it before, while Indian companies already held rights to extract oil in Venezuela, creating opportunities to increase production.

He also said he would explore whether Reliance could refine more Venezuelan oil, pointing to its large refining capacity and previous experience with the country’s crude.

However, Rubio cautioned that Venezuelan oil alone could not cover potential global supply shortages. It could offer some relief in the short term and contribute more over time.


2. Is Accenture saying goodbye to China? 👋

Accenture is reportedly exploring the sale of its Greater China business, which could be valued at up to $1.5 billion, as per Financial Times.

What’s happening: the company has hired JPMorgan to review its options after receiving interest from potential buyers over the past year. The business includes Accenture’s operations in mainland China, Hong Kong and Taiwan.

Importantly, Accenture may sell a majority stake while retaining a significant minority holding.

The why: operating in China has become increasingly difficult for global consulting companies. Tighter rules around data security and sensitive information have forced several Western firms to separate their Chinese technology systems from their global networks.

The larger picture: Accenture expects revenue to grow 3-6% in FY27. It believes growth could accelerate later in the decade as more businesses move from experimenting with AI to using it across their operations.

US-China Business Council, 2025 Member Survey

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3. Big money, big donations 💸

Big AI promises now come with big giveaways. Anthropic and Elon Musk’s SpaceX have pledged a slice of their wealth as tech firms face pressure over AI’s potential impact on jobs and society. (A little goodwill certainly wouldn’t hurt)

What’s Musk offering: one of his SpaceX shares to every child in America next year. At about $150 a share, that would put the giveaway at roughly $10.8 billion for 72 million children. A hefty sum, but less than 2% of his current net worth.

SpaceX, which owns xAI, raised $85.7 billion in June in the biggest IPO in history.

And Anthropic: it has pledged 5% of its shares to a fund supporting the ‘public good’, while preparing for a potential stock market listing that could value it at over $1 trillion.

Why the generosity: the AI investment boom rests partly on the belief that businesses will get more done with fewer workers. That could boost profits while leaving employees with fewer jobs and less bargaining power, widening the gap between rich and poor.

Evidence of AI’s impact on jobs remains mixed. But Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei has warned that AI could eliminate half of all white-collar work before the decade ends.

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4. How Elizabeth Holmes became Hollywood’s unlikely box-office star ⭐

Elizabeth Holmes went from building a healthcare startup once valued at $9 billion to serving an 11-year prison sentence for defrauding investors.

Now, she’s an unlikely Hollywood box-office attraction.

A new documentary, You Can See Everything, earned $15 million in its opening weekend across just 855 cinemas, with over 70% of its audience under 35.

Secretly filmed during Holmes’ final weeks before prison, it explores the woman behind the Theranos scandal and her attempts to tell her side of the story.

Watch Closely


5. Stocks that kept us interested 🚀

What went up ⬆️

📈 Ixigo jumped 9% while Federal Bank, Union Bank, HFCL and PNB gained up to 5% following their Q2 results.

💊 Natco Pharma rose 2% after announcing the US launch of carboplatin, a chemotherapy drug.

🏗️ JSW Steel ended more than 2% higher after the Orissa High Court quashed a ₹696 crore demand and set aside another ₹1,473 crore demand for reconsideration.

What went down ⬇️

🧹 Urban Company slipped 10% after its Q2 net loss tripled year-on-year amid spending on InstaHelp.

🏦 Jana Small Finance Bank ended 13% lower after Federal Bank said it was not in any active discussions regarding an acquisition.

📉 UltraTech Cement, HDFC Bank and Axis Bank fell up to 4% after reporting quarterly results.

🏥 Max Healthcare and other hospital stocks fell after the government capped margins on 137 cancer medicines at 30%.


What else are we snackin’ 🍿

💸 Expansion mode: Vedanta doubled its South African zinc production capacity to 500,000 tonnes annually after investing nearly $600 million in Gamsberg’s expansion.

✅ Reviving shipping: Ukraine is discussing reopening Black Sea ports, its main food export route, with Turkey, Egypt and India following Russian attacks.

👀 Deal brewing: MakeMyTrip is reportedly in talks to acquire Quick Ride through redBus, potentially expanding urban mobility and strengthening corporate commute offerings.

👖Deep pockets: Premium menswear brand The Pant Project raised ₹109 crore in Series B funding to expand stores, enter new categories and strengthen omnichannel presence.

😮‍💨 Revenue record: Apple India’s FY26 revenue rose 31% to ₹1,03,853 crore, crossing ₹1 lakh crore and more than doubling its FY23 figure.


That’s a wrap! Don’t let the weekday blues get to you.

And if you’d like to place your brand on this newsletter, let us know.

Hit that 💚 if you liked this issue.

Disclaimer: this newsletter is for informational and research purposes only. Nothing here should be considered financial, investment, legal, or professional advice.

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