World Bank sees India growing at 6.5% despite tariffs

The World Bank has stuck to India’s 6.5% GDP growth forecast for FY27, even as it expects a drop from 7.2% growth in the current fiscal.

By the numbers:

• FY26: 7.2% growth (World Bank) vs 7.4% (govt estimate)
• FY27: 6.5%, assuming US 50% tariffs stay in place
• FY28: 6.6%, slightly lower than the earlier 6.7% call

Strong domestic demand. Exports may take a hit from US tariffs, but strong services and local demand are expected to soften the blow.

Zoom out: global agencies broadly agree on India’s path. The UN recently nudged its 2026 growth forecast up to 6.6%, with a further pickup to 6.7% in 2027. 

One wildcard: the upcoming GDP base year revision. With India shifting its base year to 2022–23, fresh growth numbers due on February 27 could force economists to redraw their forecasts all over again.